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Pseudoscience

National Institute of Technology, Maizuru College

A: “What is the greatest invention history?” It is an interesting question. What would you answer to such a question?

I assume most of you have imagined something produced by science. Look around and think about your daily life. Our quality of life has been greatly improved by science.
But today, we are going to talk about a certain kind of science which has a negative influence on us. This is our theme, pseudoscience.

B: Let us begin with a story from 100 years. A German horse called “Hans” was famous for his high intelligence in 1904, in Germany. He was called “Clever Hans”. When he was given a mathematical problem, he indicated the correct answer by tapping his hoof.

However, it turned out Hans didn't know the answer. The questioner knew the correct answers and unconsciously gave him cues such as tension of facial muscles and change of breathing patterns. The audience foolishly believed a horse could think like a human.

A: 23 years since Hans appeared, a Japanese scientist issued a book called “Research of personality with blood-type”. This idea has had a strong influence all over Japan. That is “Blood-type Fortune-telling”.

At almost the same time when he issued the book, a large experiment was performed by Japanese military. They wanted to organize the military as powerful as possible by placing solders appropriately. So they tested whether there was a correlation between solders` blood types and personality characteristics. But in the end, the experiment did not get good result.

Since then, many experiments have been taken up by many countries. But every single one failed to reach a persuasive result.
Then, why is “Blood-type Fortune-telling” even today so popular in Japan?
I assume its simplicity is one of main reasons. Another is its popular appeal. There are billions of different people in the world, but blood typing ridiculously narrows everyone down into four personality types. Courtship, friendship and even employment can be made simple. But it is oversimplification to the point of absurdity.

As we have been discussing, “Blood-type Fortune-telling” which we have been discussed is not a part of science.

So we'd like to name them as “Non Science”.

C: Let me introduce you more science-looking example. Have you heard this kind of statement?
Inoculate burned part of food causes cancer
My mother told me this, so I always remove the burned parts of a fish before eating it.

Is this statement true? Yes. The National Cancer Centre of Japan said in 1980s that in order to prevent a cancer, you ought to pay attention to these things. You should avoid charred part of food to reduce the risk of cancer. Experiments with rats confirmed its carcinogenic effects.

But the revised document in 2006, which is almost the same, does not contain such a statement.
Why is that? It is a matter of degree. The burned parts of food do contain cancer-producing substances, but it is much less than first claimed. If we adapt the rat experiments to human, we would need to consume more than one hundred tons of charred food every day of the year to have the same risk.

What is the difference between the sentences “Inoculate burned parts of food causes cancer” and “Your blood type determines your personality?” Both are incorrect, but at least the former stands on scientific research.
But it misunderstands the true meaning of the research. So we'd like to call it as “Incomplete Science”.

A: In this part, we would like to talk about the “limit of science”.
Have you checked weather forecast recently? I assume most of you have, in order to confirm whether it is possible to hang out in Tokyo at night! While watching the news, or checking an app on your phone, you will find this kind of expression. “The chance of rain in Tokyo is forty percent”.
“The chance of rain”? Why cannot we, living in the 21st century, predict even tomorrow's weather precisely?

There is a simple answer. It's because our world is a kind of “complex system”. What is complex system? It is described as a system which has a large number of factors affecting the phenomena.

B: Weather change is calculated by using an enormous amount of data on weather in the past. We have been trying to predict weather, using this data statistically.
But because there are an infinite number of factors affecting the weather, we cannot simulate it perfectly.

Here comes another question. “Hmm, I know the difficulty of weather forecast. But what will happen in the future? If humans continue to progress, one day we can know tomorrow's weather precisely, cannot we?”

C: A famous scientist said,
“Even when we can go to Mars, we will not be able to know the destination of a piece of paper falling from the top of TV tower. This indicates both greatness and limitation of science.”
(NAKAYA Ukitiro, Method of Science)

This quotation reminds us of the limit of science and incomprehensibility of complex systems. We often view wrongly that science is limitless.

Science is marvelously effective to a certain extent, but outside of the extent, it is nearly “useless”.

A: In the final part of our presentation, let's consider how to distinguish pseudoscience from real science.
We would like to give you some tips to distinguish them.

B: Sensational Headlines
The media tend to use more and more sensational headlines, to increase their readership. But it is often at the sacrifice of accuracy. And their over-simplification often makes people misunderstand the news. You should find the original “source” of the news.

C: Incorrect method for research
Suppose you were a researcher in a pharmaceutical company, and need to do a clinical trial, you need to prepare for those things. This slide shows the correct method for research.
Without those qualifications, the result is not worth conviction.

A: Correlation & Causation
There is one funny saying about it.
For the last 150 years, the number of pirates has been decreasing, while global average temperature has been increasing steadily. Therefore, we can state this; pirates' diminution causes global warming.
You laugh off this statement naturally. But when we come to think of it, there are lots and lots of similar logic in the world.
When you come across this kind of statement, ask yourself: “are there any separate or common reasons? Are these two really correlated with each other?”

B: We have been talking a lot, here comes our final slide. The most important thing to distinguish suspicious stories is, to maintain intellectual curiosity. Keep asking why to what you encounter, when you have no sense whether it is right or wrong.