 |
スクリプトは事前提出されたものですので、ビデオの音声とは異なる場合があります。 |
 |
FUTURES
Matsue College of Technology
Enviro Quiz 2011.
1 Is it a good idea to plant a tree?
2 Is it a bad idea to remove trees?
3 Should we preserve our forests?
4 CO2 is a pollutant. True or False?
5 Is the Greenhouse effect a problem?
6 CO2 is the most abundant greenhouse gas. True or False?
7 People have caused changes in the weather. True or False?
8 Take a guess. How much water is available for us to use?
9 The amount of water available for us to use remains constant.
True or False?
Question 10
Do we know enough about the world’s environment and our influence on it?
Let's check your score.
Question 1? It is a good idea to plant a tree.
Question 2? Yes and no. Young trees are CO2 sinks but old or dead trees are CO2
sources - so it's a tricky question.
Question 3? Should we preserve our forests? Of course, but we have to learn to
manage them so that they are always CO2 sinks.
Question 4? Of course CO2 is not a pollutant.
Question 5? Without the greenhouse effect – we wouldn’t be here.
Question 6? CO2 is not the most abundant greenhouse gas.
Question 7? People might cause climate change but there are a lot of other factors as well.
Question 8? Only 0.7% of the world’s water is fresh.
Question 9? The water cycle is true but water can get trapped in inaccessible places or can get contaminated.
So how was your score out of 9?
We left Question 10 till last - because it is the main point of our presentation.
Do we know enough about the world’s environment and our influence on it?
Yes. In many ways we do.
The next part of the script is a discussion of opposite and/or contradictory opinions.
How much will sea levels rise, and by when?
Is the IPCC model correct?
Is Venice drowning or sinking?
What is happening to sea level around Tuvalu and in Hong Kong Harbor?
Are the weather statistics accurate?
Are you confused? Can you understand any of this? No? Well that's the problem we want to discuss with you. What's the cause of the confusion? Scientists take observations from the past hundred years or so and feed the data into models.
There are so many models. And models are just a method of interpreting the data to predict the future. And different models give different predictions.
There's so much data. There's sometimes good news but mostly it's bad news. The predictions get worse and worse.
At the same time there are strong lobbies saying that the data are biased or the models are wrong. There are enough doubts and contradictions to make it easy for people to walk away from the issues and to choose to ignore the predictions. We need a time out. First, why are there so many contradictions? Because people are not trying hard enough? No, everyone is doing their best. So why is everyone's best so different? Because we have data, we have models, and we have people.
Let’s consider some of the players.
- I'm an environmentalist. I am really worried about what we are doing. It seems no one's listening. I have to scare you into action.
- I represent big business. - I have to protect our industry. The case for panic is not proven.
- I'm a politician - my donors and the people, who voted for me, expect me to protect their interests.
Yes! That's exactly what you should do!
Typical attitude! Can't you see the mess we're in?
Time to stand back - Let's go back to question 10.
Do you think we know enough about the world’s environment and our influence on it?
No we don't. But does it matter?
No we don't - so what can we do about it?
We have a very simple 3-point plan.
Step 1 - Take the Emotion out of Environment
Step 2 - Take the Vested interests out of environment
Why?
Because the scare tactics and the politics mean the facts are hidden by all the rhetoric. And we don't want to let ourselves be carried away by rhetoric.
And then, Step 3
Concentrate on one simple fact that CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing. Agreed?
It correlates with burning fossil fuels.
Definitely
Most probably
So if we accept that our activities are upsetting the natural balance. We should also accept that it's not smart. Common sense should tell us it can't be good. So let's address the CO2 issue now, because if we wait till we can answer, "yes" to Question 10, we could be waiting forever. So, instead of arguing about what, how much, when and why…
Let's just accept that we mightn't know enough but that's no reason not to act now. As engineers we should just get on with the job.
A total commitment to creating alternative technologies.
As people, we should start now.
A total commitment to changing expectations and adjusting our lifestyles.
Let's imagine two futures
There's the wait and see future.
“You know, if we had acted when we first recognized the accumulation of CO2 - the world would be a different place.”
And there's the action now future.
“You know if we hadn't acted when we did - imagine what the world would be like now.”
Your choice, your future. We know what we want.
